Democratizing Data
CMS’s Democratizing Data Initiative makes demographic data on immigrants accessible to a wide range of users. Launched in 2013, the project provides estimates on the size and characteristics of the US unauthorized and naturalization-eligible populations at national, state and sub-state levels. The initiative offers this information through interactive data tools, tables, charts and groundbreaking reports. CMS data have been broadly used by scholars, researchers, government officials, and service-providers in crafting, implementing, and evaluating programs that serve noncitizens.
Following a review of its data-sharing policies in July 2017, CMS will no longer make available its underlying ACS data or respond to requests for sub-state level information about the US unauthorized population.
Tools and Maps
Introducing an innovative, interactive database providing detailed information about US unauthorized residents and immigrants eligible to naturalize at the national, state, and sub-state levels. Now available at data.cmsny.org.
Tables, Charts and Figures
Correction on CMS Mortgage Statistics Related to Households with Undocumented Residents and Households with Temporary Protected Status Recipients, and Announcement of New Data on TPS Recipients
Data Tables Offer Detailed Characteristics of Temporary Protection Status Recipients from El Salvador, Honduras and Haiti by State
Eight tables displaying detailed characteristics of TPS recipients from El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti, respectively, by US state and of TPS recipients from the three countries, collectively, by US state.
TABLE | 2013 Immigrant Population Eligible to Naturalize in the United States, by Country of Origin and State of Residence
TABLE | 2013 Immigrant Population Eligible to Naturalize in the United States, by State of Residence
TABLE | 2013 Estimated Total Number Eligible for DACA and DAPA, by State of Residence
Publications
Robert Warren
Reverse Migration to Mexico Led to US Undocumented Population Decline: 2010 to 2018
This paper presents estimates of the undocumented population residing in the United States in 2018. Since 2010, the total undocumented population in the United States has declined because large numbers of undocumented residents returned to Mexico. From 2010 to 2018, a total of 2.6 million Mexican nationals left the US undocumented population; about 1.1 million, or 45 percent of them, returned to Mexico voluntarily. Additional findings include the following:
- The total US undocumented population was 10.6 million in 2018, a decline of about 80,000 from 2017, and a drop of 1.2 million, or 10 percent, since 2010.
- Since 2010, about two-thirds of new arrivals have overstayed temporary visas and one-third entered illegally across the border.
- The total undocumented population in California was 2.3 million in 2018, a decline of about 600,000 compared to 2.9 million in 2010. The number from Mexico residing in the state dropped by 605,000 from 2010 to 2018.
- The undocumented population in New York State fell by 230,000, or 25 percent, from 2010 to 2018. Declines were largest for Jamaica (−51 percent), Trinidad and Tobago (−50 percent), Ecuador (−44 percent), and Mexico (−34 percent).
- Two countries had especially large population changes — in different directions — in the 2010 to 2018 period. The population from Poland dropped steadily, from 93,000 to 39,000, while the population from Venezuela increased from 65,000 to 172,000. Almost all the increase from Venezuela occurred after 2014.
Robert Warren
Overstays Exceeded Illegal Border Crossers after 2010 Because Illegal Entries Dropped to Their Lowest Level in Decades
This essay by CMS Senior Fellow Robert Warren examines the number of nonimmigrants who overstayed their visas to the United States. It demonstrates that the number of visa overstays has not spiked, but has remained in the 200,000 to 400,000 range since 2000. Moreover, visa overstays leave the undocumented population at significant rates, including through emigration and adjustment to lawful permanent resident status. Of those who overstayed their non-immigrant visas in 2000, less than one-half were living in the United States as undocumented residents in 2017.
Robert Warren
Sharp Multiyear Decline in Undocumented Immigration Suggests Progress at US-Mexico Border, Not a National Emergency
Introduction This paper combines data from two reports[1] by the Center for Migration Studies (CMS) with Department of Homeland Security (DHS) statistics on apprehensions, adjustment of status, and removals, to illustrate major trends in undocumented immigration to the United States since 1990. It shows that the undocumented population and undocumented......
Robert Warren
US Undocumented Population Continued to Fall from 2016 to 2017 and Visa Overstays Significantly Exceeded Illegal Crossings for the Seventh Consecutive Year
This paper finds that the US undocumented population from Mexico declined by 1.3 million people from 2010 to 2017, including a decrease of 400,000 from 2016 to 2017. For the first time ever, Mexican nationals constitute less than half of the total US undocumented population. The paper also finds that visa overstays contributed significantly more to the population of newly undocumented residents than illegal border crossers from 2010 to 2017. It recommends that the administration and Congress work together to: 1) provide more resources to the US Department of State for their visa-issuance work and 2) pass legislation to legalize the DREAM-Act eligible population, long-term Temporary Protected Status beneficiaries, and “intending immigrants” with US citizen or lawful permanent resident family members. These findings reveal a disconnect between public discourse on the border wall and empirical data, and argue for more nuanced and evidence-based responses to undocumented migration.
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Robert Warren
The US Undocumented Population Fell Sharply During the Obama Era: Estimates for 2016
This report shows estimates of the undocumented population residing in the United States in 2016, by country of origin and state of residence. Previous CMS reports have documented the long-term change from rapid population growth in the 1990s, to single-digit rates of growth in 2000 to 2010. This report shows continued declines in the population from most countries and in most states since 2010....
Robert Warren
The Legally Resident Foreign-born Population Has the Same Percentage of Skilled Workers as the US-Born Native Population
Overview In August 2017, the White House issued a fact sheet announcing President Donald J. Trump’s support for the Reforming American Immigration for a Strong Economy (RAISE) Act that would “prioritize immigrants based on the skills they bring to our Nation.”[1] It stated, in part: For decades, low-skilled and unskilled......
Donald Kerwin and Robert Warren
DREAM Act-Eligible Poised to Build on the Investments Made in Them
This paper outlines the results of a study on young immigrants, known as the Dreamers, who would be eligible for conditional permanent status under the DREAM Act of 2017. The study paints a portrait of a highly productive, integrated group of young Americans, who are deeply committed to the United States and poised to make — with status and time — even more substantial contributions to the communities that have invested in them. These investments include $150 billion that states and localities have to date spent on the education of Dreamers. The paper highlights potential DREAM Act recipients’ large numbers, prevalence throughout the country, high levels of employment and self-employment, long residence, US families, English language proficiency, and education levels. It argues that with time and, particularly, with a path to citizenship, the Dreamers would be able to contribute significantly more to their communities. Finally, the study finds that a large number of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) recipients, who will soon lose this status, would qualify for relief under the DREAM Act.
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Robert Warren
DHS Overestimates Visa Overstays for 2016; Overstay Population Growth Near Zero During the Year
This paper compares US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) estimates for visa overstays in fiscal year 2016 with estimates from the Center for Migration Studies (CMS). It finds that DHS has overstated the number of people from roughly 30 counties who have overstayed their temporary visas, half of them participants in the US Visa Waiver Program (VWP). In particular, the DHS estimates for 2016 include significant numbers of temporary visa holders who left the undocumented population, but whose departure could not be verified. Thus, the actual number of visa overstays in 2016 was about half of the number estimated by DHS. The paper also shows that the population growth of visa overstays was near zero in 2016 after adjusting DHS estimates to account for unrecorded departures. The country-specific figures in this paper should help DHS improve verification of departures of temporary visitors and also to reassess decisions about admission to the VWP.
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Robert Warren and Donald Kerwin
A Statistical and Demographic Profile of the US Temporary Protected Status Populations from El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti
This report presents detailed statistical information on the US Temporary Protected Status (TPS) populations from El Salvador, Honduras, and Haiti. It reveals hardworking populations with strong family and other ties to the United States. In addition, high percentages have lived in the United States for 20 years or more, arrived as children, and have US citizen children. ...
Robert Warren
Zero Undocumented Population Growth Is Here to Stay and Immigration Reform Would Preserve and Extend These Gains
This paper makes the case that the era of large-scale undocumented population growth has ended, and that there is a need to reform the US legal immigration system to preserve and extend US gains in reducing undocumented entries and the US undocumented population overall. The paper demonstrates that a broad and sustained reduction in undocumented immigration to the United States occurred in the 2008 to 2015 period. It shows that the Great Recession had little, if any, role in the transformation to zero population growth of the undocumented population. Rather, the undocumented population stopped growing because of increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11, a decade and a half of accelerating efforts to reduce illegal entries across the southern border, long-term increases in the numbers leaving the population each year, and improved economic and demographic conditions in Mexico. These conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future....
Robert Warren and Donald Kerwin
The 2,000 Mile Wall in Search of a Purpose: Since 2007 Visa Overstays have Outnumbered Undocumented Border Crossers by a Half Million
This paper speaks to another reason to question the necessity and value of a 2,000-mile wall along the US-Mexico border: It does not reflect the reality of how the large majority of persons now become undocumented. The paper presents information about the mode of arrival of the undocumented population that resided in the United States in 2014. To simplify the presentation, it divides the 2014 population into two groups: overstays and entries without inspection (EWIs). The estimates are based primarily on detailed estimates of the undocumented population in 2014 compiled by CMS and estimates of overstays for 2015 derived by the US Department of Homeland Security. ...
Donald Kerwin, Roberto Suro, Tess Thorman and Daniela Alulema
The DACA Era and the Continuous Legalization Work of the US Immigrant-Serving Community
This CMS Report documents performance and growing capacity of the immigrant servicing-community during the Deferred Actions for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program ...
Robert Warren, Donald Kerwin
Mass Deportations Would Impoverish US Families and Create Immense Social Costs
This paper provides a statistical portrait of the US undocumented population, with an emphasis on the social and economic condition of mixed-status households – that is, households that contain a US citizen and an undocumented resident. The study finds that mass deportations would plunge millions of US families into poverty, cost $118 billion to care for US-citizen children of deported parents, imperil the housing market and reduce GDP.
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Robert Warren
New Data and Analysis Confirms Stable Growth in Immigration
This report reviews the latest information available about the growth of the foreign-born population and provides information about recently arrived temporary residents in the population. The report finds that foreign-born population growth, legal and undocumented, as well as new arrivals, have remained fairly stable over the past few years....
Robert Warren
Surge in Immigration in 2014 and 2015? The Evidence Remains Illusory
Robert Warren, CMS’s Senior Visiting Fellow, conducts a detailed analysis of immigration to the United States in 2014 and 2015, refuting claims of a surge in undocumented immigration....
Donald Kerwin, Robert Warren
Potential Beneficiaries of the Obama Administration’s Executive Action Programs Deeply Embedded in US Society
This paper offers a statistical portrait of the intended direct beneficiaries of the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA), the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and the DACA expansion (DACA-plus) programs. It finds that potential DAPA, DACA, and DACA-plus recipients are deeply embedded in US society, with high employment rates, extensive US family ties, long tenure, and substantial rates of English-language proficiency. The paper also notes various groups that would benefit indirectly from the full implementation of DAPA and DACA or, conversely, would suffer from the removal of potential beneficiaries of these programs. The authors find these populations have become embedded in US society and that an unknown, albeit not insubstantial percentage of both the DAPA- and DACA-eligible may already qualify for an immigration benefit or relief that would put them on a path to permanent residency and US citizenship....
Robert Warren
US Undocumented Population Drops Below 11 Million in 2014, with Continued Declines in the Mexican Undocumented Population
Undocumented immigration has been a significant political issue in recent years, and is likely to remain so throughout and beyond the presidential election year of 2016. One reason for the high and sustained level of interest in undocumented immigration is the widespread belief that the trend in the undocumented population is ever upward. This paper shows that this belief is mistaken and that, in fact, the undocumented population has been decreasing for more than a half a decade. Other findings of the paper that should inform the immigration debate are the growing naturalized citizen populations in almost every US state and the fact that, since 1980, the legally resident foreign-born population from Mexico has grown faster than the undocumented population from Mexico....
Robert Warren, Donald Kerwin
The US Eligible-to-Naturalize Population: Detailed Social and Economic Characteristics
Naturalization is a crucial step in the full integration of immigrants into US society. However, sufficient information has not been available on the naturalization-eligible that would allow the federal government, states, localities, and non-governmental service providers to develop targeted strategies on a local level to assist this population to naturalize and to overcome barriers to eligibility. This paper offers detailed estimates of the eligible-to-naturalize based on data collected in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The data can be used to identify naturalization-eligible populations by geographic area, source country, and a variety of demographic criteria. The findings detailed in this Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) paper show that high percentages of the 8.6 million potentially eligible immigrants are well-situated to naturalize. However, others may have difficulty meeting the naturalization requirements without extensive support, including the 1.16 million who do not speak English; 3.0 million with less than a high school education; and the 1.8 million with incomes below the poverty level. This study can help focus resources where they are most needed to reach and support naturalization-eligible residents interested in naturalizing, as well as provide a factual basis for reforming naturalization policies....
Charles Kamasaki, Susan Timmons, Courtney Tudi
Immigration Reform and Administrative Relief for 2014 and Beyond: A Report on Behalf of the Committee for Immigration Reform Implementation (CIRI), Human Resources Working Group
Successful implementation of any broad-scale immigrant legalization program requires an adequately funded infrastructure of immigrant-serving organizations. As the initial Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program instituted in 2012 has already stretched the capacity of immigrant-serving organizations to their limits or even beyond them, the possibility of full implementation of DAPA (Deferred Action for Parents of Citizens and Lawful Permanent Residents) and the expanded DACA programs presents a formidable challenge for these organizations. In this paper, the Human Resources Working Group of the Committee for Immigration Reform Implementation (CIRI) draws on the lessons of the Immigrant Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA), DACA, and other initiatives to provide a roadmap for immigrant service delivery agencies and their partners in planning for implementation of the expanded DACA and the DAPA programs, with an eye (ultimately) to broad legislative reform. In particular, this paper focuses on the funding and human resources that the immigrant service delivery field, writ large, would require to implement these programs....
Robert Warren, Donald Kerwin
Beyond DAPA and DACA: Revisiting Legislative Reform in Light of Long-Term Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States
This paper documents dramatic changes in unauthorized immigration to the United States in the past two decades. It presents estimates of the unauthorized resident population derived from American Community Survey data, supplemented by recent estimates produced by Warren and Warren (2013), and statistics from IPUMS-USA. The paper highlights several trends that emerge from this data, including the precipitous decline in arrivals into this population since 2000 (particularly from Mexico), the rapidly increasing average length of residence of unauthorized residents, and the growing salience of visa overstays in constituting this population. The paper provides estimates of those who would be eligible for the Deferred Action for Parental Accountability (DAPA) and Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programs. However it also looks beyond these programs to make the case that substantial declines in the unauthorized population — a goal shared by partisans on both sides of the immigration reform debate — will require legislation that reforms the legal immigration system, legalizes a large percentage of the unauthorized, and effectively responds to nonimmigrant visa overstays....
Robert Warren
A New Upsurge in Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico Not Likely
On August 13, the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) released a report based on data collected in the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). The report, available at http://cis.org/Immigrant-Population-Hits-Record-Second-Quarter-2015, stated: “After falling or growing little in recent years, the number of Mexican immigrants again seems to be growing significantly.” The......
Robert Warren
US-born Children of Undocumented Residents: Numbers and Characteristics in 2013
Introduction The constitutionally guaranteed right to US citizenship to persons born in the United States has received considerable attention in the 2016 Republican presidential campaign. A recent report [1] by the Pew Research Center describes long-term trends in births of US-born children to undocumented residents and it provides a general description......
Roberto Suro
California Dreaming: The New Dynamism in Immigration Federalism and Opportunities for Inclusion on a Variegated Landscape
The relationship between states, localities and the federal government on immigration matters began to undergo a dramatic shift with the passage of Proposition 187 in California in 1994. This has led to the development of a new dynamism in immigration federalism over the last twenty years, particularly in the absence of federal legislation on several pressing immigration challenges. This paper concludes that immigration policymaking and implementation is increasingly characterized by the distribution of power across all levels of government, leading to divergent and varied outcomes. Some states and localities have adopted enforcement regimes meant to heighten the impact of federal exclusion. Others have created conditions and policies that seek to welcome and incorporate unauthorized immigrants as residents. While the federal government retains the authority to determine an individual’s immigration status, sub-federal initiatives that aim at mitigation and inclusion for unauthorized immigrants are strongly shaping the practical consequences of immigration status. Moreover, diverse immigration policies on a state and local basis are likely to increase in the future, particularly in the absence of federal immigration reform....
María E. Enchautegui
Legalization Programs and the Integration of Unauthorized Immigrants: A Comparison of S. 744 and IRCA
Experiences under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) may prove to be a poor guide for understanding how smoothly today’s unauthorized immigrants will integrate into the economy under reform proposals such as the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S. 744). While IRCA provided a relatively quick path to legal permanent resident status, S. 744 proposes a decade long process with much attendant uncertainty. This and other provisions in S. 744 may adversely affect immigrants’ integration and economic mobility. ...
Tom K. Wong, Donald Kerwin, Jeanne M. Atkinson, Mary Meg McCarthy
Paths to Lawful Immigration Status: Results and Implications from the PERSON Survey
Anecdotal evidence suggests that a significant percentage of unauthorized immigrants in the United States are also potentially eligible for some sort of immigration relief, but they either do not know it or are not able to pursue lawful immigration status for other reasons. However, no published study has systematically analyzed this issue.Using the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program as a laboratory for this work, the authors conducted a nationwide surveyof immigrant-serving organizations that provide legal services. The study reports that 14.3 percent of individuals that were found to be eligible for DACA, which provides temporary relief from deportation, were also found to be eligible for some other form of immigration relief and may already be on a path towards lawful permanent residency....
Robert Warren
The Estimated Undocumented Population is 11 Million. How Do We Know?
The purpose of this report is to briefly describe the origin of the widely reported estimate of 11 million and to show why claims of much higher numbers are not credible. Thus the author addresses two questions (1) how was the 11 million numbers derived? (2) could the actual number be 15, 20, or even 30 million? The author provides a simple framework for computing the estimate of 11 million and the potential range of error around each component of the estimate. ...
Robert Warren
Democratizing Data about Unauthorized Residents in the United States: Estimates and Public-Use Data, 2010 to 2013
Information about the unauthorized resident population is needed to develop and evaluate US immigration policy, determine the social and economic effects of unauthorized immigration, and assist public and private service providers in carrying out their missions. Until recently, estimates have been available only for selected data points at the national and sometimes the state level. The Center for Migration Studies (CMS) convened a meeting in September 2013 to assess the need for information about the unauthorized resident population. The meeting included leading academics, researchers, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that serve immigrants, and local, state, and federal government representatives. Based on the recommendations from that meeting, CMS initiated a project to derive estimates of the size and characteristics of the unauthorized population at the national, state, and sub-state levels, and to make the information readily available to a wide cross-section of users. A series of statistical procedures were developed to derive estimates based on microdata collected by the US Census Bureau in the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS). The estimates provide detailed demographic information for unauthorized residents in population units as small as 100,000 persons. Overall, the estimates are consistent with the limited information produced by residual estimation techniques. A primary consideration in constructing the estimates was to protect the privacy of ACS respondents....
Events
Private: WEBINAR | A Statistical and Demographic Profile of the US Temporary Protected Status Populations from El Salvador, Honduras and Haiti
National Interests and Potential Common Ground in the US Immigration Debates: Legal Immigration Reform v. Mass Deportation and the Wall
Immigration Reform and Administrative Relief: 2014 and Beyond
Democratizing Data and Promoting Legalization/Regularization without Federal Immigration Reform
Introducing the New CMS Database to Find Estimates and Characteristics of the Unauthorized
