How Trump's Mass Deportation Plan Would Hurt the United States

How Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan Would Hurt the United States

Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican Party 2024 presidential nominee, has laid out a plan to round up any undocumented immigrant in the country, place them into “tent” camps, and summarily deport them. Using data from the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS, the most recent year of data available), the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) estimates a total undocumented population of 10.9 million people. While the details of Trump’s plan are sketchy, the goals are clear: to conduct immigration “sweeps” throughout the country using any and all enforcement personnel, and to rid the United States of persons who are, in his own words, “poisoning the blood of our country.”

In pure policy terms, this plan would harm the interests of our nation in several tangible ways, including US economic and domestic and national security interests. In legal terms, it would violate due process and humanitarian norms, undermining the rule of law upon which the nation was founded. And in human terms, it would violate human rights, including the separation of families, diminishing the United States as a nation built upon moral values.

Figure 1. Estimated Undocumented Population, 2015 to 2022: Total, Mexico, and Central and South America.

Source: CMS estimates of 2022 undocumented population (Warren 2024).

Economic and Fiscal Impact. The undocumented population comprises 5 percent of the workforce in the United States, working in industries such as agriculture, construction, service, entertainment, and health-care. On a micro level, they help manicure our lawns, take care of our children and grandchildren, clean our homes, wait on us at restaurants, and collect our trash. Without their labor, the US economy would experience a labor shortage which could not be replenished easily, and the costs of goods and services would rise.

In addition, the United States is facing a severe workforce shortage, with workers needed in a variety of industries. Mass deportations would only exacerbate these shortages. Moreover, cumulative Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be reduced by 2.6 percent, or nearly $5 trillion over ten years if the 8.1 million undocumented workers were deported. If the undocumented population was legalized, however, the GDP would rise by $1.5 trillion over the next ten years. Finally, the nation’s housing market would be jeopardized because a high percentage of the 1.3 million mortgages held by households with undocumented immigrants would be in peril.

Figure 2. Household Ownership for Mixed-Status Households

Source: CMS estimates of the 2022 undocumented population using IPUMS dataset (Ruggles et al. 2023).

On a fiscal level, undocumented workers contribute as much as $6 billion tax dollars to the federal government each year, which would be lost under Trump’s plan. They also pay $12 billion into the Social Security system each year, which helps underwrite a system which could be at risk of collapsing over the next decade.

Finally, the cost of deporting nearly 11 million people—the goal of the Trump plan—would be significant, even in the context of a multi-trillion dollar federal budget. In 2015, when Trump first proposed such a plan, experts estimated that it would cost half a trillion dollars, even without involving the military. Trump also would use the military, National Guard, and state and local police to conduct enforcement, which would have a high price tag. And the costs of erecting “tent camps” and using military aircraft to deport people to their countries would take a chunk out of the Pentagon budget.

Impact on US Domestic and National Security. As articulated by Trump, he would authorize local police to arrest and detain undocumented immigrants, taking them away from their mission of keeping communities safe. Research shows that this would make local communities less safe, as police would be taken away from the mission of apprehending criminal threats. Moreover, immigrants would be less likely to report crimes or cooperate with police if they fear that they or a family member could be deported.

In addition, using the military and the National Guard to conduct immigration enforcement would take them away from dealing with threats to the nation’s national security. With the commitment of the military worldwide, pulling troops or resources away from US vital military interests abroad would only weaken our national security. The Pentagon has acknowledged this, usually opposing efforts to use its troops for immigration purposes.

Impact On the Rule of Law. US citizens, permanent residents, and legal immigrants would inevitably be caught up in the mass deportation plan, with little opportunity to legally respond to their arrest and detention. Immigration “sweeps,” as Trump is proposing, often lead to profiling, usually on racial or ethnic grounds. It is inevitable that US citizens and other legal immigrants will be caught up in the sweeps and unjustly detained and even deported.

Table 1. Estimated Undocumented Population Residing in the Top 15 States: 2018 to 2022.

Source: CMS estimates of 2022 undocumented population (Warren 2024). All numbers rounded to 5,000s. – zero or rounds to zero.

There is ample evidence of racial profiling in the history of the Secure Communities and 287(g) programs, in which local police were authorized to arrest and detain undocumented immigrants. Numerous cases of mistaken identity and wrongful arrest and detention occurred, simply because an individual was not able to immediately prove their legal status or citizenship. Trump’s plan would create fear in immigrant communities, which is his intention, with even US citizens being afraid to go to work each day.

The United States is known as a nation based on the rule of law, not the whim of a few. In this scenario, the rule of law would be abridged, as it is unclear whether the undocumented would be able to mount a defense to their deportation, which is now available to them. If persons are being swept away to camps and immediately deported, it is likely that due process will not occur, or, if so, it would be so limited that an immigrant would be unable to adequately prepare a case, particularly with legal representation. It is a plan that an authoritarian regime might pursue, with no respect to the due process of law.

Humanitarian Impact. It is obvious that mass deportations would violate the human rights of the individual. First and foremost, American families would be separated under this plan. The American public remembers the specter—and the sounds—of immigrant children being separated from their parents during the Trump administration. This reality and suffering would rise exponentially under Trump’s plan, as 6.1 million US citizen children live in a mixed-status family, with one member—usually a parent—being undocumented. Children would no doubt be left without a parent, and could be left orphaned in families with two undocumented parents or in single-parent households.

Moreover, according to a 2017 study by CMS, mass deportations would impoverish US families and have immense social costs, reducing median household income of mixed-status families by 47 percent. If one-third of the US-born children of undocumented residents remained in the United States following a mass deportation program, the cost of raising those children through their minority would be over $114 billion.

Table 2. Estimated Loss of Financial Support for US-born Children Due to Mass Deportation.

Updated from Warren & Kerwin (2017) using CMS estimates of 2022 undocumented population.

Second, long-term residents who have built equities in this country, would be deported. More than two-thirds of the undocumented population has lived in the United States over 10 years, contributing to the economy. They own houses, have families, and are gainfully employed—paying taxes and otherwise obeying the law. Many identify with the United States over their native countries. The question for the country would be the following: what benefit is there to the country to deport them at this point, if they are contributing to the US economy and to their local communities?

Finally, Trump’s plan would undermine the moral authority of the United States around the world and undermine our standing as leaders of the free world. For nativists, the impact of implementing this plan on our international reputation would not be a high priority. However, it would send a message to the world that the United States is no longer a nation founded upon the protection of human rights, weakening our influence on other nations who the United States depends upon to respond to humanitarian crises globally.

Conclusion. It is clear that Trump’s plan would go against the interests of the United States on many levels. Instead of launching a plan to deport the undocumented, the United States should provide them a path to citizenship and allow the majority to remain and continue to contribute to the economy and culture of the United States. In addition, resources should be directed toward modernizing our legal immigration system and toward apprehending immigrants who are a threat to the United States. Finally, the United States should also work with sending countries, especially in this hemisphere, to address the root causes of flight, the only long-term solution to irregular migration. It is time to move away from costly, inhumane, and failed enforcement-only policies, and create a US immigration system which honors due process and creates a more orderly process for immigration to our country.

March 27, 2024