The US Refugee Admissions Program: What's at Stake in the Election

The US Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) reached a significant milestone on September 30, when the US State Department, led by the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (BPRM), announced the resettlement of 100,034 refugees for fiscal year 2024, more in one year than the Trump administration resettled during its four-year term. While the number fell short of the 125,000 ceiling set by the Biden administration for FY 2024, it is the largest number of refugees resettled since FY 1995, nearly three decades.

The program, operated by BPRM and created pursuant to the 1980 Refugee Act, has historically enjoyed bipartisan support and has represented a model of a public-private partnership, with ten refugee resettlement agencies, including faith-based organizations, working with the government to resettle and integrate refugees into local communities across the nation.

Since its inception, more than 3 million refugees have been welcomed to the country and successfully resettled, literally saving their lives from their persecutors. The program is one of the most secure in the country, as refugees are required to go through numerous multi-agency background checks before being approved for entry.

Moreover, the US commitment to refugee resettlement provides benefits to the United States, generating goodwill abroad and encouraging other nations to also share in accepting refugees in their countries. Refugees who have arrived in the United States through the program have contributed to the nation through their hard work and cultural contributions, adding diversity to their local communities.

Despite these achievements—and based on his first-term record—a second Donald Trump term represents an existential threat to the program, with the progress made during the Biden administration, not to mention the program itself, at risk.

What’s at stake

The Trump administration’s record on refugee resettlement saw a sharp drop in refugee admissions, from about 84,994 in President Obama’s last year to 11,814 in 2020. Trump halted admissions for several months twice—from January to May in his first year and for several months in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. His administration also introduced new and strict vetting procedures and banned refugees from 11 Muslim-majority countries, with a severe drop in refugees from those countries. As a result, the Trump administration severely weakened the refugee resettlement network nationwide, with the resettlement agencies forced to cut costs and close offices.

Based on this record, as well as the tone and rhetoric of his current campaign, it is likely that a second Trump administration would go even further in crippling the program. He could again halt refugee admissions to “review” the program and revise the annual presidential determination to a low number, which the Biden administration recently set at 125,000. Project 2025, a blueprint for a second term produced by the Heritage Foundation, calls for a drastic reduction in refugee admissions and an end to the use of parole to bring in refugee-like populations.

And, as was done between 2016-2020, a second Trump administration would significantly reduce admissions from certain parts of the world, such as Africa and the Middle East. It is likely Trump would reintroduce some form of a Muslim ban, limiting refugee admissions from Muslim-majority countries. Significant increases in refugees from Latin America and the Caribbean achieved under the Biden administration would certainly be reversed in a second Trump term.

Specifically, the Trump administration resettled 57,559 refugees from African countries over its term, while the Biden administration resettled 76,065. The difference in the numbers from Middle Eastern countries, where conflict and civil strife are rampant, was even more stark, with Trump resettling 30,066 and Biden resettling 60,222. While the Trump administration resettled only 4,044 refugees from Latin America, the Biden administration upped the number to 35,455. [1]

Other initiatives by the Biden administration which would face elimination under a second Trump term include the Welcome Corps, a program which permits the private sponsorship of refugees, and Safe Mobility Offices (SMOs), offices located in Central and South America to allow refugees to apply for resettlement rather than take a dangerous journey to the US-Mexico border.

Participants in the Welcome Corps have sponsored over two-thousand refugees since its launch in 2023, increasing community involvement in refugee resettlement and lowering the costs of resettlement for the US taxpayer. SMOs have played a significant role in increasing refugee resettlement from Latin America, with over 10,000 refugees referred to the US refugee program during the first year. The elimination of either or both of these initiatives would represent a significant setback for the program.

It is also likely that the number of refugees entering the country on a Special Immigrant Visa (SIVs)–a visa used primarily for Afghan and Iraqi individuals who assisted US troops during the Afghan and Iraq wars, would be significantly reduced, leaving those who risked their lives to help our troops in jeopardy. Created in 2006 by Congress, the SIV program was decimated by the Trump administration, which drastically lowered SIV approval rates. The Biden administration restored the use of the visa, with a record 30,000 plus approved in 2024.

Another line of attack in a second Trump term would be a second attempt to give states the right to refuse the resettlement of refugees in their states. A Trump administration executive order briefly allowed this opt out, with several Republican states, led by Texas, indicating they would not allow refugee resettlement in their states. The effort was eventually abandoned by the administration when a court challenge overturned the order.

Finally, Trump has indicated that he will eliminate the use of parole to bring in refugee-like populations, such as the nearly 80,000 Afghans and 190,000 Ukrainians brought in through parole by the Biden administration. The Cuban-Haitian-Nicaraguan-Venezuelan (CHNV) program, which allowed 530,000 immigrants fleeing political unrest in those countries to live and work in the United States, also would be eliminated, with the beneficiaries becoming targets of Trump’s mass deportation program.

Looking Forward

An administration led by Kamala Harris, however, would build on the progress made by the Biden-Harris administration, with a goal of consistently meeting, if not exceeding, the 125,000 refugee ceiling. Such initiatives as the Welcome Corps and SMOs would gather traction and become permanent accessories to the US refugee program. While a Harris administration would likely use parole more sparingly, it certainly would continue to be used as an immigration and foreign policy tool.

A record number of nearly 125 million people are displaced throughout the world, fleeing conflict, persecution, climate change, and abject poverty. At the same time, a record number of migrants and refugees are dying in the world’s oceans and deserts, with a record 3,104 deaths in the Mediterranean Sea in 2023.

Similarly, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has called the US-Mexico border the world’s deadliest migrant land route, while a recent Center for Migration Studies of New York research study found a dramatic increase in migrant deaths at the border, including women and children. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has stated that refugee resettlement needs will increase by 20 percent in 2025, with nearly 3 million refugees in need of resettlement.

The absence of US leadership in the area of refugee protection, as would be inevitable under a second Trump administration, would only encourage other nations to retreat from their commitments–not fill the void–and would lead to more protracted refugee crises around the world.

There is a lot at stake in the 2024 US presidential election, particularly for those who seek protection from harm under international law. While not a high profile program, the USRAP is an effective life-saving foreign policy tool which could become one of the casualties of a second Trump term, along with the fate of several hundred thousand refugees.

[1] US Department of State, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration. Admissions Arrival Reports, 2015-2024.

October 30, 2024